"Day Zero" - Capetonians were warned was the day when the city and the area were going to run out of water - has now been moved forward to 2019. The extension of Day Zero was mainly due to inhabitants and farmers in the area cooperating to drastically curtail their water usage. The public, in general, was quick to adapt to the 50 litres per person per day limit, but those who bear the brunt of the restrictions, are mostly farmers and some businesses in the area.

"The World Meteorological Organization" estimates that two-thirds of the people on the planet will face periodic or frequent water shortages by 2025. The Western Cape region was one of the first areas to experience shortages of this magnitude - many dams and reservoirs are dry or almost dry - as a result of a drought that has been going for almost three years.

Farming in South Africa is not easy due to its low, and irregular rainfall. In the Western Cape, the annual rainfall varies considerably - from 1 000 mm in some mountainous areas to as little as 150 mm in parts of the Karoo. Winter rainfall in the Cape Town area where wine, deciduous fruit, citrus, grain, fynbos are amongst the best known agricultural produce, is around 500 mm. Due to the drought, farming in the area, water utilisation for irrigation and other farming uses, is closely monitored.

Agriculture water usage in Cape Town has dropped significantly, and since the beginning of 2018 the use of water by farmers has decreased by 51% (268 million litres per day) from major dams, and it is expected to drop to 31% (160 million litres per day), with a hopeful bonus of another 10% (50 million litres per day) in the near future. Water restrictions will have and expected adverse effect on the volumes produced, but many wine producers believe that quality will not be adversely affected, and may, in some cases even be higher than the normal. There are however areas where production volumes of wine and fruit are expected to fall by as much as 30%. Damage to trees and vines seem limited, but there will be economic losses in the short term.

Rapid population growth and climate change have played vital roles in the Day Zero challenge. Climate change is showing its impact through prolonged droughts. Experts warn of ever-increasing water shortages throughout the world, and South Africa as a whole is no exception. All of us are therefore responsible to control our water consumption and not waste or allow the wastage of this precious commodity, as we are living and working with the threat of a Day Zero in the future hanging over our collective heads.

The Western Cape Municipality have urge water consumption reduction by all stakeholders to push back Day Zero. Agricultural stakeholders can contribute to this by using water more efficiently sustaining production, but reducing overall water use and to avoid the dreaded Day Zero.

During the last couple of months, the GIS Group at Manstrat focused their research on short term and long-term forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). January 2018 data from the NOAA Climate Forecast System (CFS) was used to predict expected rainfall for February. This article highlights the accuracy of the predictions by comparing it to the actual rainfall experienced.

Figure 1: Predicted Rainfall for February 2018 (Data sourced from NOAA CFS on 1 January 2018)

The Predicted Rainfall map was calculated using NOAA GFS data and comparing it with the long-term average and presented in map format - Figure 1. The map shows those areas expecting above-normal rainfall (blue) and below-normal rainfall (red). Figure 1, shows expected rainfall:

• Above normal rainfall: Eastern Cape; KwaZulu-Natal; eastern parts of Mpumalanga; eastern and northern parts of Limpopo; the western coastal and central regions of the Western Cape.
• Below normal rainfall: A small area in the central and northern parts of Northern Cape; the western parts of North-West and a small area between eastern North-West, and north-western Gauteng and south-western Limpopo.

Figure 2: Satellite Derived Rainfall (Data sourced from NOAA: Africa Data Archive)

The map shows those areas that received above-normal rainfall (green to blue blocks) and below-normal rainfall (yellow to brown blocks) in terms of the archived long-term data:

• Normal to above normal rainfall received: Parts of the Western Cape; the southern parts of the Northern Cape; most of the Eastern Cape; the northern Free State; central and northern KwaZulu-Natal; and Limpopo.
• Below-normal rainfall received: Large parts of eastern and central Northern Cape; the southern Free State; isolated areas in North-West; Gauteng; Mpumalanga; and KwaZulu-Natal.

Figure 3: Map showing areas where both predicted rainfall and actual rainfall correspond.

Areas where prediction data corresponded with actual rainfall data Figure 3:

• Areas receiving above-normal rainfall corresponding with above-normal rainfall predictions (blue blocks).
• Areas receiving normal rainfall corresponding with normal rainfall predictions (green blocks).
• Areas receiving below-normal rainfall corresponding with below-normal rainfall predictions (red blocks).

Figure 4: The map indicates those areas where both predicted rainfall and actual rainfall did not correspond.

• Areas where data predicted below-normal rainfall that experienced above-normal rainfall (blue blocks).
• Areas where data predicted above-normal rainfall that experienced below-normal rainfall (red blocks).

Figure 5: The map highlights areas of either normal predicted rainfall and normal measured rainfall but that deviate towards below or above-normal predicted or measured rainfall.

Long-range predictions and measured rainfall, are classified into three classes:

• Above-Normal (Wet);
• Normal conditions; and
• Below-normal (dry) rainfall.

Figure 5 marks those areas that were predicted and measured as normal rainfall but deviated either to wet or dry conditions

• Areas that had normal rainfall predicted but experienced below-normal rainfall (Red);
• Areas that had normal rainfall predicted but experienced above-normal rainfall (Blue);
• Areas that had above-normal rainfall predicted but experienced normal rainfall (Light Blue); and
• Areas that had below-normal rainfall predicted but experienced normal rainfall (Orange).

NOAA CFS predictions offered more correct predictions to incorrect ones, but there were lots of deviations from normal rainfall predictions and measurements. To improve the accuracy and quality of future long-range predictions we will focus on extreme conditions only. Long-term predictions should, for obvious reasons be used with caution, and only used as a warning guide to extreme events such as possible droughts or floods.

Post-harvest food loss is amongst the many challenges in agriculture contributing to food insecurity. The Food and Agriculture Organisation estimates that as much as one-third of the food produced globally for human consumption is lost or wasted along the supply chain - and even higher in Africa - between 30% and 50%. This significant toll on food security translates back to lost production resources (land, water, energy, inputs and income), with a direct adverse effect on food security, nutrition, and economic stability. Avoiding post-harvest losses is therefore critical in ensuring food and income security, from household to national levels.

Best-practice post-harvest handling calls for the application of appropriate practices and technologies, from harvesting to the distribution of food products. Food losses are mostly the result of poor or wrong practices during production, harvesting, handling, storage, packaging, transportation, and processing.

The decline of fresh produce, by nature perishable, starts with the removal of the product from the mother plant's active metabolism. The rate of decline, however, is intensified by poor post-harvest handling, transport, storage etc.

Training, of course, plays an essential role in the process. Farmers need to be taught the importance of post-harvest handling, coupled with the efficient application of quality control and hands-on management of workers, who are also trained and versed in their specific tasks - harvesting, handling, grading, sizing and packing. Knowledge and application.

When adding improved post-harvest practices to other capabilities like the application of maturity indexes of commodities, it will give farmers added competitive advantages - all improving the final output. At the same time, investment in infrastructure that will lead to the implementation of sound harvest and storage practices will also improve the chances of higher incomes through higher sellable outputs.

Reducing post-harvest losses will increase food availability while saving farmer's input resources. With more sustainable outputs, farmers will become more competitive in the broader markets, minimising constant food-security concerns.

The recent outbreak of avian influenza in South Africa caused widespread losses in the poultry egg industries. The current South Africa outbreak of Listeriosis is the biggest outbreak of the disease on record globally, and with the source yet to be discovered, poses an additional threat to the human food chain.

The strain of avian influenza that wreaked havoc in the poultry industry from June 2017 was not detected in humans. This strain (H5N8) is a highly pathogenic that spread rapidly through several provinces by migratory wild birds and farmers were forced to cull thousands of their birds, leading to substantial losses to producers - estimated at R954 million.

Listeriosis is a food-borne disease caused by the bacterium Listeria monocytogenes and is found in soil, water and vegetation. Eating uncooked animal products and unpasteurised milk increases the risk of contracting Listeriosis by humans. The high number of confirmed laboratory cases (872 with 164 deaths) increases the urgent need to find the source of the disease.

In the recent past, we have also experienced other disease outbreaks: In August 2017, a Foot and Mouth Disease outbreak occurred in the Giyani Local Municipality, while African Swine Fever appeared in the Free State and North West during 2016. Brucellosis, a zoonotic disease, occurs yearly throughout the province, not only threatening the human food chain, but also human health.

These "Controlled" diseases affect South Africa's trade industry negatively while threats to the human food chain have repercussions, including threatening food security and exacerbating poverty.

When animals become sick, it causes not only a loss in production to producers but has an economic and social impact. Sick animals stop producing milk, eggs and meat and losing their young - eliminating or harming next generations. Animal disease means less food for people and resultant malnutrition and health issues. International trade is affected and often halted where animal diseases threaten the safety of people and animals in other countries.

Extension officers have a valuable role in helping farmers guard against animal diseases that could potentially threaten the food chain. Using Extension Suite online, extension officers have access to information on animal diseases, including controlled and notifiable diseases, with information about their nearest available state and private veterinarians. Biosecurity measures help tremendously in disease control, and by using the guidelines available on ESO in conjunction with other health and management programmes, Extension officers can assist and support farmers right there on the farm to guard against diseases that have wide implications that threaten the human food chain.

References

• http://www.nda.agric.za/doaDev/sideMenu/...
• http://www.fao.org/food-chain...
• http://www.mpo.co.za/wp-content/uploads...
• http://www.elsenburg.com/vetepi...
• http://www.rpo.co.za/wp-content/uploads...
• https://www.sapork.biz/notifiable-swine-diseases...
• http://www.thepigsite.com/swinenews/42771/south-africa...
• https://www.parliament.gov.za/press-releases/south-african...
• http://www.nda.agric.za/docs/media/Foot%20and%20Mouth...
• https://www.ruvasa.co.za/wp-content/uploads...

Food is required as a source of energy by all living organisms to grow, reproduce and survive and humans are an integral part of the food network.

The first step in the food chain is the capturing of solar energy by plants (primary producers) through photosynthesis. Herbivores (primary consumers) consume plants, and omnivores (secondary consumers) and carnivores (tertiary consumers), consume herbivores. At each step of this food chain 90% of the energy is lost for the next consumer; that is, herbivores receive about 10% of the energy in plants, omnivores 1% and carnivores 0.1%, of the original energy.

Consider this in the context that solar energy is constant - that is, the energy captured by plants has to be shared by all animal species, including humans.

Until 15 000 years ago humans obtained food by hunting and gathering. With the passing of the last ice-age, more favourable climatic conditions triggered the start of agricultural production. The human population began to increase, slowly at first, but exponentially in the last few centuries (75% of the increase has been in the previous 100 years).

To feed the population not only is energy required from plants, but indirectly fossil energy is needed for processing and supporting other activities (fossil fuels, coal, oil and gas, can be considered a bank of solar energy in the soil, accumulated over millions of years, which is not renewable). This handy resource lead to unprecedented levels of activity and use of energy, much of it not renewable. One consequence is the rise in CO2 levels, one of the drivers of climate change. CO2 levels increased from 280 ppm to 400 ppm in the last 50 years; above 300 ppm is unprecedented for the last 400 000 years.

How does this affect the human food chain?

Naturally, consuming food from primary producers (plants) expend less energy in the food chain, compared to the consumption of animals.

Ecologists have a statistical method ranking species within the food chain. Primary producers (plants) are on a level of 1.0 while a pure predator scores 5.0. A diet of half plants and half meat would score 2.5; worldwide humans are on a level of 2.21, but there are great variations between regions from 2.0 (for a 96% plant-based diet) to 2.6.

The significant trend is, however, that as people become more affluent, they eat more meat and fewer vegetables. There have been massive increases in meat consumption in developing countries. This implies more significant quantities of water used, more CO2 emissions, more trash generated from processing, all with dire consequences to the environment.

Unfortunately, there are no obvious and easy solutions. Various novel meat sources have been investigated, meat-tax regulations have been proposed, and in wealthy countries, the demand for meat has decreased for health reasons. Overall, developing sources of renewable energy will help, and are an integral part of the strategy.

Attention must be maintained on the human food chain. By analysing the intricacies of the human food chain some useful and practical solutions to food security, obesity, malnutrition and environmental cost in the agricultural industry, may become apparent.

Manstrat GIS research, over the last 6 months, focussed mainly on short-term (daily - up to 16 days), and long-term (monthly predictions - up to 12 months) weather predictions. Short term predictions are part of our weekly weather forecast publication Mutsho.

Due to the inherent nature of long-term predictions, validation of data takes place over longer periods. The longer the term of any weather prediction, the less accurate it becomes. One of the factors influencing the accuracy of predictions is of course climate change. All maps published here should therefore also be interpreted in the context of the uncertainties of long term predictions. Maps were sourced from data obtained on 1 December 2017 from the NOAA Climate Forecast System (CFS).

January 2018

Figure 1: Average Rainfall for January

Figure 2: Predicted Rainfall for January 2018

To simplify the interpretation of the maps in this article, the first dark shade of green - the 50 to 75 mm cut-off - is used as our reference line, referred to as the 50mm isohyet (a line used in meteorology that links areas with equal rainfall to one another).

Using the 50mm isohyet as a reference line, one can notice the differences between figures 1 and 2. In the January Average Map (figure 1) the line runs from just inside the Northern Cape, south-westward through the Free State into the Eastern Cape. Also clear, is that the average rainfall for January across the summer rainfall region is between 50 to 100 mm with the green colours dominating.

Looking at figure 2, it is clear to see that the western areas of the summer rainfall regions will be drier in January compared to the eastern regions. The Eastern Cape, KwaZulu-Natal and Mpumalanga will all receive more rainfall than normal while the north west, south western Free State and western Northern Cape will remain drier.

February 2018

Figure 3: Average Rainfall for February

Figure 4: Predicted Rainfall for February 2018

The average rainfall for February is very much like January's average rainfall, with the exception of parts of Limpopo expected to be drier. Looking at the average rainfall (Figure 3) and predicted rainfall for February 2018 (Figure 4), it seems these areas in Limpopo, extending into North West will be much drier. Northern KwaZulu-Natal will also be drier than normal. On the positive side, some areas indicated in green over the Northern Cape will receive more rainfall. More rain is expected over southern KwaZulu-Natal and the northern Eastern Cape.

March 2018

Figure 5: Average Rainfall for March

Figure 6: Predicted Rainfall for March 2018

Comparing the maps in figures 5 and 6 shows a positive rainfall month in March. Most areas will receive their normal rainfall for the month, but an area stretching from the North West, through the central Free State into northern Eastern Cape and Southern KwaZulu-Natal might receive more rainfall than normal. The only area of concern is the yellow area over northern Gauteng and the brown colours over parts of Limpopo indicating below-normal rainfall. Above normal rainfall is also expected over the Western Cape.

Figure 7: Latest ENSO forecast from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.

The general pattern of normal to above normal rainfall over the summer rainfall region for January 2018 to March 2018 falls within the short period of La-Nina conditions over the Pacific Ocean. Periods of below normal rainfall in South Africa are often linked with the El Nino event while above normal rainfall is linked to La Nina.

The long-range prediction data shows huge promise for operational implementation. However, data restrictions plus the effect of climate change on accuracy of predictions need to be kept in mind - compelling users to use the data as a guideline, and once implemented, should be updated on a regular basis.

Food is the one commodity that both man and animals need to survive. The supply of food through agribusinesses is, even in our current economic environment where agricultural inputs have become costly, remain pivotal, and continue to provide business opportunities to agricultural entrepreneurs. Added to this are industries - manufacturing and processing - that depend on agribusiness for raw material. Agribusiness, especially in the developing world, has all the potential of an essential driver of economic growth in rural areas. Many opportunities exist in South Africa for agribusinesses. Admittedly financial means, business skills, knowledge and experience play crucial roles, but are not always available to all rural citizens.

Agribusiness refers to the business of agricultural production and is a generic term for a range of businesses involved in the food production chain. Agribusinesses include all levels of commercial farming, seed supply, manure, fertilisers and agri-chemicals, farm machinery, distribution, wholesale and retail sales, processing, research and development, marketing and financing of the agro-allied industry. The value chain in the agribusiness industry, from food production to processing and marketing, provides considerable opportunities to entrepreneurs.

For young entrepreneurs to succeed, hard work and persistence are a good start. However, to succeed, they need to be armed, not only with relevant information and appropriate skills, but also a strong drive and clear goals. Attributes that set great successful entrepreneurs apart include passion, perseverance, good communication skills, open-mindedness, a positive attitude, and a drive to overcome failures and to be successful.

Agribusiness, as with any other business, is fraught with uncertainties and risks. Entrepreneurs start off small, taking smaller risks that provide essential and productive lessons leading to growth - and higher risks. It is at the emerging stage that many entrepreneurs get demoralised by circumstances they feel are out of their control. Lack of start-up funds primarily chained to the high risk of a new agricultural business venture, pose considerable threats. However, with determination and commitment, well-driven entrepreneurs do get past this stage and succeed. In the process, they need to be aware of, and seek access to, all available help.

Extension Suite Online® is a web-based decision support system giving solutions about Animal and Plant production, and areal Climatic and Agricultural Suppliers' information. ESO is freely available to farmers through their local Provincial Agricultural Extension Practitioners. The system empowers these officials to assist those who want to leave the world of subsistence for the wider spectrum of agribusiness. Agriculture is not supposed to be the poor's occupation but rather a profession for individuals who are not afraid to dream, fail and take significant risks.

"The road to success and the road to failure are almost exactly the same." - Colin R. Davis